>**This note is semi-private.** It is visible to anyone with the link. Please ask before sharing. See also [[-2022]] and [[-Venice 2022 plan]]. Contents: [[#Outline of next 6 months]] [[#Amble 1 plan]] ## Outline of next 6 months ### 2022Q1 Focus: study, writing, (maybe) start thinking about next project. ### 2022Q2 Focus: explore towards next big project OR continue study ### 2022H2 Focus: explore towards / start next big project ### January Focus: - [x] (18 days) Holiday (target 1 hour / day) - [x] (1-2 days) 80K - [x] (6 days) Amble 1 Key dates: - 2-3: Penne => Venice (18 days holiday) - 14: V birthday - 20: Venice => Penne - 24: 2022 Amble 1 starts (4-5 weeks) - 26 Jan: CK visits for 2 weeks ### February Focus: - (20 days) Study - (1-2 days) 80K - (1-3 days) CK Key dates: - 19: Amble 1 ends (4 weeks) - 20: Amble 1 review; final decision about Oxford / Austin - 20: V arrives in Penne? - ~27: Amble 2 starts Location: - Default plan stay in Penne until 12th March. - ~50% chance I decide to go to Oxford or Austin, departing around 27th. ### March Focus: - P32 Annual review; then study OR "next big project" longlist - Oxford visit (2 weeks) Key dates: - 12: Penne to Oxford - 25/27: Oxford => Scotland for 1 week vacation with parents (Mum birthday) ~~Variation, if I want to visit Reykjavík in spring:~~ ~~- 27 Feb - 13 Mar: Oxford~~ ~~- 14 Mar - 25 Mar: Stay at Uta's flat in Reykjavik, then fly to Scotland~~ ## Amble 1 plan _4 weeks from 24th Jan_ ### Focus projects **(2-4 weeks) Writing** - [ ] **Study journal** (sun.pjh.is / notes.pjh.is) - [ ] Input: \>1 hour of writing, 5 days / week - [ ] Output: **5 "original writing" posts/notes** published per week, at least 100 words each (published at https://sun.pjh.is or https://notes.pjh.is/Changelog) - [ ] **EA Forum contributions** - [ ] \>1 top-level post - [ ] \>2 comments - [ ] [[Training]] - [ ] \>5 mins anki / day, 7 days / week - [ ] \>90 mins on Evergreen note writing or other experiments - [ ] [Phil Tetlock forecasting course](https://good-judgment.thinkific.com/courses/Superforecasting-Fundamentals) (90 mins to complete) - [x] >30 mins on Open Phil calibration tool - [ ] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdFbx9oqtKAAwtKF3/list-of-probability-calibration-exercises - [ ] \>=1x clearerthinking.org programme - [ ] \>=4x >30 min calls with EAs - [ ] Count: 1 (AV) - [ ] \>5 mins daily meditation I don't want to pre-commit to the topics I'll write about. A longlist of sorts is at [[§Interesting questions]]. **(0-2 weeks) Software design and development** If my mood / mental energy is too low for productive study, I will switch to spend 1-2 weeks on software design and development. This is an activity I usually find enjoyable and productive during my "low" periods. I will consider switching on 31 January. ### Personal projects - [x] (2-4 days) Fun with CK - [x] (Monday evenings) Penne d'Agenais Film Club, season 2 - [ ] ??? ## Week-by-week outline 2022W04 / A1W1: - [ ] EA Forum post: at least 1 first draft - [ ] Leave one EA Forum comment - [x] Daily writing - [x] Daily Anki - [ ] Tetlock Forecasting Course - [x] Wednesday PM: Welcome CK - [x] Schedule >=1 calls with EA 2022W05 / A1W2 - [ ] EA Forum post: share for comment from at least 1 person - [ ] Schedule >=1 calls with EAs - [ ] Daily writing - [ ] Daily Anki - [ ] Open Phil calibration tool again - [ ] \>=1x clearerthinking.org programme 2022W06 / A1W3 - [ ] EA Forum post: final draft / publish - [ ] Daily writing - [ ] Daily Anki 2022W07 / A1W4 - [ ] EA Forum post: overflow - [ ] Daily writing - [ ] Daily Anki ## Do not do - [ ] Actively seek people to cowork in Penne in February (unless CK is keen to host). ## Thoughts; key uncertainties; alternatives considered; ideas that didn't quite make the cut Thoughts: - Relationship with CK is important and apt to get crowded out. How to avoid that? - [ ] Think about Penne patterns and send her a note. - Virtues to practice - >5 mins positive self-talk - Samuel Johnson's ideal of maximum commitment to every conversation - How to support CK during this period? - Should I invite EA friends to Penne during this period? - **I could really do with a more regular dialog partner**. - Another Philosophy tutor? Pamela? - I've been in a "low" period since early December. I expect it'll lift soon, but until then I may have a hard time studying. - I briefly considered committing to 4 weeks on software development now. But I say: continue with the study push, accept that it may be a bit fallow, if it goes really badly *then* switch to software for a couple weeks. ## Prompts and trigger questions - [ ] Life areas check - [ ] What is the 10x more ambitious version? - Reflection from Amble 3 is still relevant. - [ ] Pre-mortem: it's the end of the period and something went badly wrong. What was it? - Reflection from Amble 3 is still relevant. - [ ] What should I cut? - [ ] Does this plan play to my strengths? Does it exploit, develop or help reveal my "edge"? - [ ] Does this plan make sense from perspective of 2-10 year vision? - [ ] Thinking sideways; refactoring ## Weekly pattern, routine, structure See [[Weekly pattern, routine, structure]].