>**This note is semi-private.** It is visible to anyone with the link. Please ask before sharing. See also: [[-2022]]; [[Next big project project]]; [[_Next big project shortlist]]; [[_Next big project longlist]]; [[_Micro-SaaS ideas]]; [[02022 Amble 4 – Written review]] Inbox: - https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/07/nabeels-productivity-advice.html - Try sleeping 7 hours / night for 2-4 weeks? - Logic trees - Synthesise while reading ## Year outline ### 2022Q1 ~~Focus: study, writing, (maybe) start thinking about next project.~~ Focus: Get through and out of unusually long period of low energy, brain fog, general uselessness. ### 2022Q2 ~~Focus: study,writing OR explore towards / start next big project~~ Focus: Complete recovery from Q1; Software projects; Small helps ### 2022Q3 Focus: Explore towards / start next big project ### 2022Q4 Focus: Get properly into next big project ## Amble 5 plan _4 weeks in July, 18-20 days._ _2022-08-03 update: I've decided to extend this amble to 6 weeks. I'm currently motoring through a new project—[Radio Bostrom](https://radiobostrom.com)—and it's obvious that I should just keep working on that for now._ _2022-08-19 update: I've decided to extend this amble to 9 weeks. I'm still motoring through Radio Bostrom; trying to kick off a project to digitise the archives of the late Derek Parfit; wrapping with help on Will MacAskill's book launch; and shipping an upadate to Comment Helper._ ### Focus projects _2022-07-13 Update: last week I offered to help with launch of Will MacAskill's new book, due out in August. Sounds like I will do at least a few things, which could mean I want to delay quite a few items on this plan._ - [ ] **(5 days) Comment Helper** - [ ] [Roadmap](https://comment-helper.org/roadmap/) - [ ] Decision: stop, or continue - [ ] **(3-5 days) Next big project** - [x] Flesh [[Next big project project]] plan - [x] Complete at least 5 substantial todos for this project - [x] At least 15 hours of Toggl time on this - [x] Decide about Bostrom Collected Essays project and podcast next steps; update HL and Kat Woods - [ ] Draft CI and robustness notation, share for feedback - [ ] (stretch) Actually start working on something that's a plausible candidate for next big thing - [ ] **(5-10 days, optional) P32 Study and writing** - [ ] Continue / wrap on [[> Big picture]] - [ ] Most important century blogprize? - [ ] EA Forum posts - [ ] Simpler Bostrom collected essays - [ ] "Conversations" - [ ] PH-Freyr on weirdness - [ ] PH-HL on metaethics - [ ] **(1-5 days) Overflow / slack / whatever I feel like at the time** - [x] (0.5-1 day, maybe) Notation for credence point estimate and robustness; notation for confidence interval and robustness of the interval - [ ] **(1-2 days) IWR** - [ ] Next release - [ ] **(0.5-2 days) 80K** Okay...main worry is that there's a lot of different things so it seems a bit fragmented. I can run I can run through these projects in series roughly a week at a time. I think this should pretty much work. Personal: - [x] [[-CKP]] - [x] Settle and setup in Clermont-Ferrand - [x] Establish good daily routine - [x] Find and join a good gym - [ ] Explore Claremont-Ferrand; maybe join a club (sports?) to try to make a friend; etc. - [ ] (stretch) Review France personal tax and income setup - [ ] PACS / marriage tax benefits - [ ] Figure out how to do investments and pensions longer term - [ ] (stretch) Visit some villages and view some farmhouses - [ ] (mega stretch) Make offer on a farmhouse ### Week-by-week **A5W1: Comment Helper** - [x] Comment Helper - [x] [Roadmap next steps](https://comment-helper.org/roadmap/) - [x] IWR Marketing: Ness Labs interview text - [ ] Personal - [x] Finish CMF setup - [ ] Reflect on BT #personal-finance note, maybe do something - [x] Propose to CK - [x] Proposal-moon vacation with CK (Wednesday to Friday) **A5W2: Next big project** - [x] Start project sheet, figure out next steps - [x] Comment Helper - [x] [Roadmap next steps](https://comment-helper.org/roadmap/) - [x] Self-development / productivity - [x] Shower time experiment: >5 showers or walks or similar (mostly no podcasts in downtime) - [ ] Personal - [ ] Car: finalise immatriculation and insurance - [x] CK: Schedule with Luisa, - [x] CK: Draft and share Luisa topics doc - [x] Settle Cornwall plan and book travel **A5W3: Next big project OR P32 study writing** #todo What did I focus on this week? **A5W4: Next big project** #todo What did I focus on this week? **A5W5: Radio Bostrom** - [ ] Record at least 2 pilot episodes, be ready to release to EA Forum on Monday 8th August **A5W6: Radio Bostrom** - [x] (Monday) Release to EA Forum - [ ] #todo What else did I do this week? **A5W7: Radio Bostrom & Parfit archive** - [ ] #todo What main things did I do this week? - [ ] **A5W8: Radio Bostrom; Parfit archive; Comment Helper; IWR** - [ ] Radio Bostrom - [ ] Complete intro series - [ ] Start launch promo on 25th August? - [ ] Parfit archive - [ ] Share second draft of funding application to key people - [ ] (stretch) Confirm funding - [ ] (stretch) Book something in with the digitisation service - [ ] (stretch) Comment Helper - [ ] Release "search unresolved comments" and notify feature requesters - [ ] (stretch) Review roadmap and update - [ ] (stretch) Inbox When Ready - [ ] Release minor update for social share - [ ] Fix Outlook version - [ ] (stretch) Writing - [ ] EA red-teaming: note on partiality - [ ] EA red-teaming: book cover rant - [ ] Personal: - [ ] Confirm move out assistance - [ ] Get PACS'd. - [ ] Win the karting competition. **A5W9: Move out of apartment; 80K meetings in London; start vacation** - [ ] ## Most promising self-development investments for this amble Shortlist: - CK relationship chats - Make new connections and talk with peers. - P32 writing, perhaps another season of sun.pjh.is - [[Learning forecasting]] and Model Building to improve my understanding of the world - https://manjotpahwa.medium.com/10-reading-habits-that-changed-my-life-5c7673bc34bc - Books - (Re-read) How to Measure Anything - (Re-read) The Model Thinker, Scott Page (or the course, Model Thinking) - (Skim) Talent, Tyler Cowen - (Skim) Decisive, Chip Heath - Send >5 tweets / week See also: [[Next big project project#Appendix 1 Self-development investments that might have very high return]]. ## Pre-mortem - One thing that could easily happen is that I spend much more time than expected on Comment Helper. This happened to some degree during Amble 4 and it pushed out writing time, though I endorse this _ex post_. That said I really do have a sense of wanting to tie up on the big picture study period from project 32, and to do that with a period of writing. - The plan is not ambitious enough. Should I try to actually get into my next big project by the end of this amble? This in mind as a stretch goal depending on how the less ambitious goal works out. - I continued not getting around to writing to the friends I want to be in touch with!! - Explicitly include this in weekly goals. - Hypomania leads to bad decisions about... what? - I don't have a history of regretting stuff I do during hypomania. - Keep up self-awareness, encourage people who know me well to share feedback, develop and follow the playbook ([[Playbook – hypomania]]), etc. - I might end up committing a couple of weeks in late summer / early autumn to helping Vikingur Olafsson with his website and plans for the next few years. I'd like to help him out and take on this non-EA-motivated thing, but I might well regret it when it actually overruns 2x and is blocking something else I want to do even more. - Remember how things went with Joe Walker's website. - Be careful about overcomitting or making a vague open commitment here. - After initial discussion seriously consider helping him find somene else. ## Prompts and trigger questions - [x] Life areas check - [x] What life area most want to improve during this period? Does this plan make this seem likely? - Longlist: - Contribution - Location / home - Money (income) - If only (1): Contribution - Plan looks good for progressing this. - Runner up: Money (income) - Plan looks good / reasonable for this. - Defer: location / home (except for getting to know Clermont-Ferrand) - [x] What is the 10x more ambitious version? - Get into plausible next big project by end of Amble - Really push on marketing to grow IWR or Comment Helper MRR X% / week - [x] What important thing(s) am I missing? - [x] I'm blank on this. - [ ] Ask someone. - [x] What should I cut or defer? - [x] Maybe P32 writing - [x] Does this plan play to my strengths? Does it exploit, develop or help reveal my "edge"? - [x] Yeah, not bad. - [x] Does it make the most of hypomanic energy? - [x] Yes, pretty good. - [x] Planning in some slack for whatever I feel like am interested in at the time is a good idea. - [x] Smashing through todo lists and pre-made plans is good but doesn't create best conditions for being generative, and hypomanic periods are the best times for generativity. - [x] This is a great time for thinking about next big project. Finally. - [x] Idea: explicitly schedule high quality shower time in daily schedule. Maybe literally take a shower. Yes, try this in week 1. - [x] Does this plan make sense from perspective of 2-10 year vision? - [x] Yes - [x] Thinking sideways; refactoring - [ ] Fast routes to next big project: - [x] Just come up with an 80K TOD vision I'm excited about, pitch HL and AK, push to make it happen. - [x] Talk to Fin? I really want to work with that guy. Probably up for co-founding, perhaps just supporting him a PH-BT type relationship (but closer and better). - [x] Talk to BT about his next stuff? Get the band back together? - [ ] #todo What else...? - [x] Comment Helper - [x] Hire dev? Probably not. - [ ] P32 wrap up - [ ] #todo Aim to do it in 1-2 days. Maybe. - [x] What will I do too much of? Maybe... - [x] Working on Comment Helper - [x] Drinking and smoking with CK - [x] Reading Twitter / other self-interrupting / podcasts - [ ] #todo What else? - [x] What will I do too little of? Maybe... - [x] Talking to EAs - [x] Posting on Twitter - [x] Shower time - [ ] #todo What else? - [ ] Is this plan ideal for me given where I am right now? Or would I do much better job if I defer to another time? (Comparative advantage through time?) ## Rough notes Where would I like to be at end July? - Comment Helper roadmap and yes / no - Plausible shortlist of next big projects, to explore seriously August onwards. - This would get me on track for getting into end of year, which is what I want. - Some decent writing, feel wrapped on P32 study (or at least the "big picture worldview" bit...) Lower priority: - Other stuff towards $10K MRR SaaS, e.g. IWR marketing and revenue growth Cool things I will not do, or at least not spend more than 3 days doing: - EA microprojects (maybe one of these in August) Personal: - [[-CKP]] - Get a read on CMF and area as maybe buy farmhouse place. - (dream) Somehow find a farmhouse and make an offer!! ### Longlist for July - Study and writing - Review feedback and do another pass on my Bostrom intro? - https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1DQo8F5JAYe_BmzQ-Sx1ytbM9Ls5LM9s1UmzBPc6je5I/edit#responses - Next big project - Consider another 80K TOD, talk to HL & AK - Review ideas, generate more, explore? - IWR - More marketing push - Review AB tests then complete APs. - Comment Helper - [Roadmap](https://comment-helper.org/roadmap/) - EA micro-projects - Bostrom podcast feed readout [pending Nonlinear Library reply] - Parfit archives for Parfit vs Williams discussions - #todo contact JRR to see if this is even an option - EA Forum post about PDF Expert / my setup for reading and writing ### Sketch of dream life next 1-5 years? Moved to: [[Next big project project#Sketch of dream life next 1-5 years]] ### How much time, if any, do I want to spend in "EA dedicate" mode over next 1-5 years? Moved to: [[Next big project project#How much time if any do I want to spend in EA dedicate mode over next 1-5 years]] ### What big thing am I getting wrong in my thinking, that a good advisor or mentor would try to talk me out of? Moved to: [[Next big project project#What big thing am I getting wrong in my thinking that a good advisor or mentor would try to talk me out of]] ### Next 1-5 years goes badly, or I made some big mistake that has chronic negative effects. What happened? Moved to: [[Next big project project#Next 1-5 years goes badly or I made some big mistake that has chronic negative effects What happened]] ### Visions for next big project - What chance my longlist already contaisn the thing I should do? How can I sensibly generate more options? - How can I quickly narrow down the longlist? - ... ### How long should this amble be? 4 or 6 weeks? **OK, 4 weeks.** July: I have 4 clear weeks in CMF. Probably lose a couple days to CK and SB. August week 1: maybe bridge retreat August week 2: Max visits So, either I plan 4 weeks and then break, or I plan 6 weeks with a 1-2 week break after week 4. Main thing is to get the ratio of planning time to work time right. \]Let's draft a plan then decide.